The COP31 Presidency wants electricity to supply 35% of the world's final energy by 2035, up from about 21% today. This page estimates how much CO2 that saves, and what happens if the share keeps growing to 50% by 2050. It covers 16 economies plus the EU, which together emit 81% of global CO2, and 15 sectors.
Electricity use is electricity supplied, including grid losses (Our World in Data, +3% for 2025). The IEA counts final consumption, about 28,500 TWh in 2025, so its totals are lower; growth rates compare directly.
AI and data centres. The IEA expects data centres to use 485 TWh in 2025, 950 TWh in 2030 and 1,200 TWh in 2035. This page includes that growth, set with the AI slider. Data centres count as electricity use, so they push the world toward 35% without replacing any fossil fuel. The 35% should come from cars, trucks, heat and industry switching away from oil, gas and coal, not from more servers. On our numbers, AI adds about 200 TWh to the 35 by 35 path in 2035 and lets fewer sectors switch, which leaves about 0.2 Gt more CO2 in 2050.
IEA references: Electricity 2026 (February 2026), 3.6% a year 2026–2030; World Energy Outlook 2025, demand up about 40% from 2024 to 2035 under current and stated policies; Electrification special report (September 2026), High Electrification Scenario adds about 1,400 TWh a year to 2035 and reaches 35% of final energy.
History: Global Carbon Budget via Our World in Data (fossil and cement CO2), scaled to the Global Carbon Budget 2025 estimate of 38.1 Gt in 2025 (+1.1%). 1.5 °C and 2 °C: IPCC AR6 median CO2 cuts versus 2019 (−48% / −65% / −80% / −99% in 2030/35/40/50 for 1.5 °C; −22% / −37% / −51% / −73% for 2 °C). Remaining 1.5 °C budget: about 170 Gt from 2026 (Global Carbon Budget 2025).
Each panel has its own scale. The 1.5 °C and 2 °C lines apply the global IPCC AR6 cut to each sector's 2025 emissions. Real 1.5 °C pathways cut power faster and aviation, shipping and cement more slowly.
CO2 price at which switching to electricity costs the same as staying on fossil fuels, including the extra equipment cost. Red: at each region's 2025 industrial power price. Green: at $40/MWh with 2050 fuel prices. Cement and aluminium show fuel CO2 only; process CO2 needs CCS. Negative: electricity already pays.
Each bar is the power price at which the electric route costs the same as the fossil route. It depends on how much more efficient the electric route is, the fossil fuel price, the CO2 price and the extra equipment cost. Green: electricity is cheaper at the region's industrial power price. Amber: within 30%. Red: not yet. Prices are 2025 averages for large industrial users (MTE estimates from public tariff data), then follow the scenario path. All prices in US dollars at $1.09 per euro.
Copper dots: milestones. Blue dashed line, world: IEA base case to 2035 (Electricity 2026 forecast to 2030, then World Energy Outlook 2025 stated policies), scaled to our 2025 level and extended after 2035 at its 2030–2035 rate. EU: IEA Electricity 2026 forecast of 2.3% a year to 2030, held at that rate after. The black dotted line is the ladder with cheaper power only.
In the EU, recycled plastic is already cheaper than plastic made in Europe from fossil feedstock. It is not cheaper than virgin plastic imported from the Middle East, because plastics are not covered by CBAM. Lower power prices help, but without equal rules for imports, new recycling plants are hard to finance.
MTE ETS Scissors model, plastics ladder: Brent $108/bbl and TTF closes of 2 Nov 2026; EUA €89/t (30 Oct 2026); EU average industrial power €187/MWh. Indicative.
How the model works. We split 2025 CO2 for 16 economies, the EU, the rest of the world and international shipping and aviation into 15 sectors plus power. Each sector grows with GDP and industrial output. A sector switches to electricity once power is cheap enough to beat fossil fuels, at the pace its equipment is replaced: about 12 years for cars and 30 for cement kilns. In the 35% scenario, sectors switch in order, cheapest first, until the world reaches the target each year. Bio-based and waste routes and CCS grow alongside. Renewables, batteries and, from 2040, SMRs supply the new demand. The results are estimates, meant to show the size of the cuts and which sectors move first.