Material Techno-Economics
Scenario lab Indicative data

The Renewable Carbon Lab

Chemicals and plastics need carbon. This lab compares the 15 routes of the Renewable Carbon Ladder, from the naphtha cracker to recycling, biomass and CO₂-based e-methanol, on cost, fossil CO₂, power and water.

🔒 Other scenarios, inputs and analysis
Cheapest low-carbon route
Mechanical recycling
€732/t · 0.30 t CO₂/t
Routes cheaper than fossil
2 of 14
including carbon cost
e-Methanol breakeven
€6/MWh
power price that matches the cracker

Cost

02,5005,0007,50010,000Mechanical recycling732Pyrolysis → cracker922Naphtha steam cracker1,208Depolymerisation / dissolution1,209Waste gasification → MTO1,350Cracker + CCS1,355Biomass gasification → MTO1,568Bio-ethylene (ethanol)1,677CO₂-polyols (20% CO₂)1,730Electric cracker1,832Natural (white) H₂ + CO₂ → methanol → MTO1,862Bio-naphtha → cracker2,461Green methanol (imported) → MTO3,099e-Methanol (point-source CO₂) → MTO7,296e-Methanol (DAC CO₂) → MTO9,487

Black bar = fossil reference (naphtha cracker).

All routes

RouteCost €/tvs fossilFossil CO₂ t/tPower MWh/tWater m³/t
Mechanical recycling
Circular · per t recyclate		732−4760.300.83
Pyrolysis → cracker
Circular		922−2861.300.68
Naphtha steam cracker
Fossil reference		1,208—1.000.36
Depolymerisation / dissolution
Circular		1,209+00.801.56
Waste gasification → MTO
Circular · mixed waste		1,350+1421.601.810
Cracker + CCS
Fossil + capture		1,355+1470.250.87
Biomass gasification → MTO
Biologize		1,568+3600.401.220
Bio-ethylene (ethanol)
Biologize		1,677+4690.400.4120
CO₂-polyols (20% CO₂)
CO₂ as feedstock · per t polyol		1,730+5212.100.56
Electric cracker
Electrify		1,832+6240.153.45
Natural (white) H₂ + CO₂ → methanol → MTO
Free hydrogen · geologic		1,862+6530.303.08
Bio-naphtha → cracker
Biologize · HVO co-product		2,461+1,2530.300.325
Green methanol (imported) → MTO
Import molecules · bio/e-methanol		3,099+1,8910.200.85
e-Methanol (point-source CO₂) → MTO
CO₂ as feedstock		7,296+6,0880.4031.012
e-Methanol (DAC CO₂) → MTO
CO₂ as feedstock		9,487+8,2780.1039.018

Assumptions & sources

Costs per tonne of product include annualised capex, O&M, energy, feedstock and carbon cost.

  1. Indicative defaults (±30%) for illustration; route costs include annualised capex and O&M.
  2. Fossil CO₂ cradle-to-gate; biogenic carbon and end-of-life emissions excluded.
  3. DECHEMA/Cefic, Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry (2017).
  4. IRENA/Methanol Institute, Innovation Outlook: Renewable Methanol (2021).
  5. Material Economics, ReShaping Plastics (2022) and Industrial Transformation 2050 (2019).
  6. Nova-Institute, Renewable Carbon Initiative reports on carbon flows (2021–2024).
  7. Bio-ethylene water use is blue water for irrigated sugarcane and varies widely by region.
  8. Bio-naphtha: HVO/HEFA co-product priced at a premium to fossil naphtha; availability limited by waste oils and fats.
  9. Natural (white) hydrogen: geologic H₂ at an indicative €1/kg (€0.5–2/kg range in early-project estimates; commercial volumes unproven). Route: ≈2.8 t methanol (≈0.53 t H₂ + captured CO₂) per t olefins via MTO; no electrolyser, ≈3 MWh/t for capture, compression and synthesis.
  10. China preset: industrial power ≈€70/MWh (≈0.55–0.6 CNY/kWh), national ETS ≈€10/t, green methanol ≈€650/t delivered (large Chinese bio- and e-methanol build-out); author estimates for discussion.
  11. Green methanol (imported): bio- or e-methanol bought delivered to Europe at an indicative €900/t (≈€700–1,200/t in 2026 offtake announcements), ≈2.8 t methanol per t olefins via MTO; fossil CO₂ counts transport and MTO energy only.
  12. Full model with 14 regions and four currencies: Renewable Carbon Ladder workbook (Material Techno-Economics).