Scenario lab · the full model

The Ladder Scenario Lab

The Electricity Ladder and Renewable Carbon Ladder for Europe, benchmarked against the USA, Brazil, the Middle East, India, China and Japan. Change the power price by region, the EU ETS price, the biomass allocation and the rules. Every verdict and the 2040 prize recalculate.

🔒 Other scenarios, inputs and analysis

EU accelerates

8 / 30

75 of 270 European cells · best abroad: Brazil 22

Electrification 2026

23%

2040 in this scenario: 30% · EU aim 46%

CO₂ avoided + removed

245 Mt

net GHG −45% vs 1990

Energy imports saved

€51bn

14% of the 2024 bill

GDP, static

-0.4%

vs US power; 0.3% vs €199

Verdicts: 31 processes × 14 regions

AccelerateConditionalResequenceElectricity LadderRenewable Carbon Ladder

Process	€40 power best sites	€25 power best sites	Nordics €88 · 0.03	France €189 · 0.05	Iberia €135 · 0.13	Benelux €220 · 0.20	Poland €224 · 0.60	Italy €323 · 0.31	Germany €250 · 0.35	EU avg €203 · 0.21	USA €75 · 0.37	Brazil €75 · 0.10	Mid. East €45 · 0.45	India €80 · 0.65	China €82 · 0.55	Japan €140 · 0.47
Electricity Ladder
BEV (cars)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	COND5	RESEQ4	COND5	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
E-trucks (fleet average)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	RESEQ4	COND5	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
Heat pumps	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND5	COND6	RESEQ4	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND6
AI hyperscale clusters	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	COND6	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ2	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	ACCEL7	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ3
Battery gigafactories	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	COND6	RESEQ4	COND5	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ4	COND5	COND5	ACCEL7	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ4
Chlor-alkali on clean power	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	RESEQ4	COND6	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND5	COND6	COND5
Net-zero silicones	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND5	COND6	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	COND5	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND5
E-glass (electric melting)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	RESEQ4	COND6	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND5	COND5	COND5
E-steel (H₂-DRI/EAF)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	RESEQ4	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	RESEQ4	COND5	RESEQ3
Cement + CCS	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND5	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	COND5	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND6
Crackers + CCS	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	RESEQ4	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ2	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	COND6	ACCEL7	COND5	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ3
Electric cracking	COND6	ACCEL7	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ2	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ2	RESEQ2	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ2	RESEQ2
Green ammonia	COND6	ACCEL7	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ2	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
Shipping e-fuels (short & deep sea)	COND5	COND6	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
E-SAF (e-kerosene)	COND6	COND6	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
Green hydrogen	COND5	COND6	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
Renewable Carbon Ladder
Mechanical recycling	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND5	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8
Depolymerisation & dissolution	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	COND5	COND6	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8
CO₂-based polyols	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8
Chemical recycling	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND5	ACCEL7	COND5	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	COND5	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	ACCEL7	COND6
Waste gasification to methanol	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND5	COND5	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	RESEQ3	RESEQ4	RESEQ4	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND6
Green bio-methanol	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND6	COND6	COND6	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6
Bio-LNG for shipping (biomethane)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
Bio-ethylene (bio-PE)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
Bio-naphtha (drop-in)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	COND5	COND6	COND6	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
Bio-SAF: HEFA (waste oils)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
Bio-SAF: alcohol-to-jet	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	COND5	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	COND6	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7
Waste-to-jet (gasification + FT)	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	COND6	COND6	RESEQ4	COND6	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL8	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL7	ACCEL8
Green e-methanol	COND5	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ3	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
Green e-methanol (DAC CO₂)	RESEQ4	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ3	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
e-Polyolefins (CO₂-to-plastics)	RESEQ3	COND5	RESEQ3	RESEQ3	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ2	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1	RESEQ1
Accelerate (of 31)	23	25	21	11	13	7	6	3	6	9	19	23	13	11	13	11

Unlock the full lab to select a cell and see its four currencies.

Emissions pathway: electrify, capture, circularize, renewable carbon

Greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO₂e a year, 1990–2050

European Union · current rules at today's prices. Unlock the full lab for each country, other scenarios and switching rungs on and off.

Ladder abatement, 2040255 Mt23 of 28 rungs and levers on

Ladder abatement, 2050350 Mtdeployment matures after 2040

2040 vs 1990−65%1,710 Mt CO₂e

2050 vs 1990−77%baseline −70%

ElectrifyBEV (cars)126→157E-trucks (fleet average)42→63E-steel (H₂-DRI/EAF)10→20Heat pumps8→17Green ammonia1→2Green hydrogen1→2E-glass (electric melting)0→1Chlor-alkali on clean power0→0

CaptureCement + CCS23→34Crackers + CCS2→4

CircularizeMechanical recycling4→5More plastic recycling3→3Depolymerisation & dissolution2→3Chemical recycling2→4Waste gasification to methanol0→0

Renewable carbonBiomass to chemicals10→10Bio-SAF: HEFA (waste oils)6→7Waste-to-jet (gasification + FT)5→7Bio-SAF: alcohol-to-jet5→6Bio-ethylene (bio-PE)2→3Bio-naphtha (drop-in)1→2Green bio-methanol1→1CO₂-based polyols0→0

Still missing for net zero by 2050 (EU)

Remaining emissions in 2050 on this pathway: 1,099 Mt (−77% vs 1990). To reach 100%, these sectors need their own levers (switch on “Add other sectors”), and what cannot be cut has to be removed.

Sector	Today, Mt	Reach of the rungs	Lever outside the ladders	Left in 2050, Mt
Power and heat supply clean power: renewables, nuclear, grids, storage	689	15%	off	301
Industry (fuel and process) covered mostly by the rungs; rest: small sites, process CO₂	640	75%	—	127
Road and domestic transport rail, modal shift, efficiency	768	55%	off	213
Buildings efficiency, district heat, gas boilers out	394	35%	off	141
International aviation and shipping fuel mandates, efficiency, demand	177	45%	off	56
Agriculture methane and nitrous oxide, diets, feed additives	374	0%	off	186
Waste and F-gases landfill methane, F-gas phase-down	158	5%	off	75

What it takes by 2040 and 2050 (EU, rungs switched on)

Electricity added520 → 746 TWh a year19% → 28% of 2,7002040 → 2050 · ≈2,700 TWh generated in the EU today (scaled)

Clean hydrogen1.2 → 2.2 Mt a year15% → 28% of 7.92040 → 2050 · ≈7.9 Mt of (mostly grey) hydrogen used in the EU today (scaled)

Sustainable biomass1.1 → 1.2 EJ a year11% → 12% of 102040 → 2050 · sustainable potential in this scenario: 10 EJ for the EU (scaled)

Plastic & mixed waste29 → 37 Mt a year98% → 124% of 302040 → 2050 · ≈30 Mt of post-consumer plastic waste collected in the EU (scaled)

CO₂ as feedstock0.2 → 0.3 Mt a yearno hard limit2040 → 2050 · from biogenic, industrial or air capture

CO₂ to storage31 → 47 Mt a year12% → 19% of 2502040 → 2050 · storage capacity assumed in Reality limits: 250 Mt for the EU (scaled)

Each wedge is one rung of the two ladders: its EU-27 2040 potential (net of the power it needs at this scenario's grid intensity) × deployment for that region's verdict (accelerate 80%, conditional 40%, resequence 10%) × the region's size relative to the EU. Wedges ramp in from 2025 to 2040 and hold to 2050. Tap a rung to switch it off. Historical: greenhouse gases excluding land use, rounded (EEA and UNFCCC inventories, EDGAR 2024; 2024 estimated). Baseline: current trend. Why the rungs alone never reach net zero, even at very low power prices: they cover industry, transport fuels and heat (≈1.2 Gt of the EU's ≈3.2 Gt at full potential), deployment tops out at 80% even when every verdict says accelerate, and power, buildings, agriculture, waste, F-gases and the land sink sit outside the ladders. Use “Add other sectors” to bring those in (values from the “Reach −90% by 2040?” tab). Resources: H₂, biomass, waste and CO₂ per rung are author estimates at full EU potential, scaled like the wedges. Indicative.

Emissions pathway: electrify, capture, circularize, renewable carbon

Greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO₂e a year, 1990–2050

United States · current rules at today's prices. Unlock the full lab for each country, other scenarios and switching rungs on and off.

Ladder abatement, 2040872 Mt24 of 30 rungs and levers on

Ladder abatement, 20501,091 Mtdeployment matures after 2040

2040 vs 1990−36%4,156 Mt CO₂e

2050 vs 1990−49%baseline −32%

ElectrifyBEV (cars)237→297E-trucks (fleet average)158→197E-steel (H₂-DRI/EAF)147→184Heat pumps128→159E-glass (electric melting)3→5Chlor-alkali on clean power3→3Green ammonia2→3Green hydrogen1→2Net-zero silicones0→0

CaptureCement + CCS88→110Crackers + CCS14→21

CircularizeChemical recycling9→11Mechanical recycling7→9More plastic recycling6→6Depolymerisation & dissolution5→6Waste gasification to methanol3→4

Renewable carbonBiomass to chemicals19→19Bio-SAF: HEFA (waste oils)11→14Waste-to-jet (gasification + FT)10→13Bio-SAF: alcohol-to-jet9→11Bio-naphtha (drop-in)5→6Bio-ethylene (bio-PE)4→6Green bio-methanol3→4CO₂-based polyols0→0

Still missing for net zero by 2050 (USA)

Remaining emissions in 2050 on this pathway: 3,321 Mt (−49% vs 1990). To reach 100%, these sectors need their own levers (switch on “Add other sectors”), and what cannot be cut has to be removed.

Sector	Today, Mt	Reach of the rungs	Lever outside the ladders	Left in 2050, Mt
Power and heat supply clean power: renewables, nuclear, grids, storage	1,335	15%	off	909
Industry (fuel and process) covered mostly by the rungs; rest: small sites, process CO₂	1,240	75%	—	384
Road and domestic transport rail, modal shift, efficiency	1,488	55%	off	645
Buildings efficiency, district heat, gas boilers out	763	35%	off	425
International aviation and shipping fuel mandates, efficiency, demand	343	45%	off	170
Agriculture methane and nitrous oxide, diets, feed additives	725	0%	off	561
Waste and F-gases landfill methane, F-gas phase-down	305	5%	off	227

What it takes by 2040 and 2050 (USA, rungs switched on)

Electricity added1,874 → 2,406 TWh a year36% → 46% of 5,2312040 → 2050 · ≈2,700 TWh generated in the EU today (scaled)

Clean hydrogen6.4 → 9.0 Mt a year42% → 59% of 152040 → 2050 · ≈7.9 Mt of (mostly grey) hydrogen used in the EU today (scaled)

Sustainable biomass2.2 → 2.5 EJ a year11% → 13% of 192040 → 2050 · sustainable potential in this scenario: 10 EJ for the EU (scaled)

Plastic & mixed waste69 → 84 Mt a year118% → 145% of 582040 → 2050 · ≈30 Mt of post-consumer plastic waste collected in the EU (scaled)

CO₂ as feedstock0.5 → 0.6 Mt a yearno hard limit2040 → 2050 · from biogenic, industrial or air capture

CO₂ to storage129 → 166 Mt a year27% → 34% of 4842040 → 2050 · storage capacity assumed in Reality limits: 250 Mt for the EU (scaled)

Emissions pathway: electrify, capture, circularize, renewable carbon

Greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO₂e a year, 1990–2050

China · current rules at today's prices. Unlock the full lab for each country, other scenarios and switching rungs on and off.

Ladder abatement, 20401,276 Mt21 of 27 rungs and levers on

Ladder abatement, 20501,673 Mtdeployment matures after 2040

2040 vs 1990+245%11,375 Mt CO₂e

2050 vs 1990+193%baseline +243%

ElectrifyBEV (cars)431→539E-trucks (fleet average)286→358E-steel (H₂-DRI/EAF)126→189Heat pumps121→181E-glass (electric melting)5→8Chlor-alkali on clean power3→4

CaptureCement + CCS95→142Crackers + CCS7→14

CircularizeChemical recycling17→21Mechanical recycling16→20More plastic recycling14→14Depolymerisation & dissolution10→13Waste gasification to methanol3→4

Renewable carbonBiomass to chemicals47→47Bio-SAF: HEFA (waste oils)26→33Waste-to-jet (gasification + FT)21→26Bio-SAF: alcohol-to-jet19→23Bio-naphtha (drop-in)11→14Bio-ethylene (bio-PE)11→13Green bio-methanol7→9CO₂-based polyols1→1

Still missing for net zero by 2050 (China)

Remaining emissions in 2050 on this pathway: 9,653 Mt (+193% vs 1990). To reach 100%, these sectors need their own levers (switch on “Add other sectors”), and what cannot be cut has to be removed.

Sector	Today, Mt	Reach of the rungs	Lever outside the ladders	Left in 2050, Mt
Power and heat supply clean power: renewables, nuclear, grids, storage	3,252	15%	off	2,643
Industry (fuel and process) covered mostly by the rungs; rest: small sites, process CO₂	3,020	75%	—	1,116
Road and domestic transport rail, modal shift, efficiency	3,624	55%	off	1,874
Buildings efficiency, district heat, gas boilers out	1,858	35%	off	1,236
International aviation and shipping fuel mandates, efficiency, demand	836	45%	off	494
Agriculture methane and nitrous oxide, diets, feed additives	1,766	0%	off	1,631
Waste and F-gases landfill methane, F-gas phase-down	743	5%	off	659

What it takes by 2040 and 2050 (China, rungs switched on)

Electricity added3,398 → 4,501 TWh a year27% → 35% of 12,7412040 → 2050 · ≈2,700 TWh generated in the EU today (scaled)

Clean hydrogen6.4 → 9.4 Mt a year17% → 25% of 372040 → 2050 · ≈7.9 Mt of (mostly grey) hydrogen used in the EU today (scaled)

Sustainable biomass5.4 → 6.2 EJ a year11% → 13% of 472040 → 2050 · sustainable potential in this scenario: 10 EJ for the EU (scaled)

Plastic & mixed waste159 → 198 Mt a year113% → 140% of 1422040 → 2050 · ≈30 Mt of post-consumer plastic waste collected in the EU (scaled)

CO₂ as feedstock1.1 → 1.4 Mt a yearno hard limit2040 → 2050 · from biogenic, industrial or air capture

CO₂ to storage144 → 223 Mt a year12% → 19% of 1,1802040 → 2050 · storage capacity assumed in Reality limits: 250 Mt for the EU (scaled)

No password yet? Email rcv@materialtechnoeconomics.com to request access.