Material Techno-Economics
Scenario lab Indicative data

The Electricity Lab

At what power price does each process electrify, and how much electricity does each rung of the Ladder need? 23 processes across chemicals, metals, minerals, heat, mobility and digital.

🔒 Other scenarios, inputs and analysis: on request
Electrify now
7 of 14
switchable processes at or below breakeven
Highest breakeven
€638/MWh
Passenger car
Most power-hungry
AI inference
360.0 MWh per bn queries

Breakeven power price

0200400600Passenger car638Heavy truck445Building heating368Alumina refining330Paper292Process steam <200 °C289Container glass211Olefins (HVC)147Process heat 200–500 °C113Hydrogen93Ammonia88Methanol78Primary steel63Cement clinker42Your power: €202

Dashed line = your power price. Bars reaching past it can electrify profitably on energy + carbon cost. Processes that are already electric are shown in the other two views.

Full lab on request

Other prices, regions and the full model

The current Europe view is shown above. For the other regions and scenarios, every input slider and the summary decks, ask for access and Rafael will be in touch.

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Or write to rcv@materialtechnoeconomics.com

Assumptions & sources

The lab compares the energy and carbon cost of a fossil route with its electrified alternative, per unit of product.

  1. Indicative defaults (±20–30%) for illustration. Energy and carbon costs only; capex, grid fees and taxes excluded unless within the power price.
  2. Breakeven power = (fossil fuel cost + carbon cost) ÷ (electric-route MWh − fossil-route MWh).
  3. Hydrogen: IEA, Global Hydrogen Review 2024 (SMR ≈ 46 MWh gas/t; electrolysis ≈ 50–55 MWh/t).
  4. Ammonia: IEA, Ammonia Technology Roadmap (2021).
  5. Steel: IEA, Iron and Steel Technology Roadmap (2020).
  6. Olefins & methanol: DECHEMA/Cefic, Low carbon energy and feedstock for the European chemical industry (2017); IRENA/Methanol Institute, Innovation Outlook: Renewable Methanol (2021).
  7. Heat pumps: IEA, The Future of Heat Pumps (2022). COP ≈ 2.75 for <200 °C steam; ≈ 3.3 for buildings.
  8. Aluminium, alumina, silicon, chlor-alkali, polysilicon: IEA and industry association benchmarks (International Aluminium Institute, Euro Chlor).
  9. Cement: only fuel CO₂ (≈0.32 t/t clinker) is removed by an electric kiln; process CO₂ (≈0.53 t/t) needs CCS.
  10. Glass and paper: Glass Alliance Europe and CEPI decarbonisation roadmaps.
  11. Vehicles: ≈6 L petrol/100 km vs ≈18 kWh/100 km; trucks ≈30 L diesel/100 km vs ≈130 kWh/100 km. ICCT (2023).
  12. AI inference: ≈0.3 Wh per query (Epoch AI, 2025) × PUE 1.2. Human brain: ≈20 W.
  13. Desalination: reverse osmosis ≈3.5 kWh/m³ (IDA). Direct air capture ≈2 MWh/t CO₂ incl. heat via heat pump (IEA, 2022).
  14. Regional prices: indicative 2026 industrial averages. Replace with your own contracts.